By Jimmy Lemke
Sports Editor
News out of the Big Ten is that they’re serious about adding a twelfth team to the conference, effectively making the name Big Ten even more ridiculous. The pressure is on because the SEC and Big 12 have near-automatic bids to the BCS National Title* game every year, with the Big Ten finishing conference play up to two weeks before conference title games.
* I do not recognize any championship game where the teams are chosen by popularity contest.
We can throw out most of the stupid ideas for who would be jumping to the Big Ten (Texas? Iowa State? Let’s get serious here). I’m also not interested in the reasons for the move, although out of the three front-runners – Pitt, Rutgers, and Missouri – I believe Mizzou will be the Big Ten’s choice.
My focus here in this post is on the domino effect that will go down once any of those three teams were to move. I will also speculate as to what will happen if other BCS auto-bid conferences make a a bid for expansion.
Scenario I: Mizzou to Big Ten
First off, the fallout is huge for the Big 12. The conference is dominant in football and very good in basketball, but losing any school to another conference would put into question that dominance, at least in perception. Obviously, the Big 12 would not become the Big 11 and give up the title game; here are my five choices for who would be the likeliest to jump to the Big 12.
1. BYU – One of the biggest private schools in the United States, BYU has a rich history in football and basketball. Steve Young and Danny Ainge are two names that come to mind. The Cougars also have a very large fan base, as evidenced by matching Oklahoma seat-by-seat for their game this season in the Cowboys’ Stadium.
2. Arkansas – The Texas-Arkansas rivalry as an intra-conference game would be a doozy. The Razorbacks also seem to fit more with the Oklahoma and Texas crew than the Kentucky and Tennessee crew.
3. TCU – I actually feel that TCU would be a highly unlikely choice for the Big 12, based on the fact that recruiting in Texas would be split five ways – Tech, Christian, UT, A&M, and Baylor. Plus half of Oklahoma’s team is from Texas.
4. New Mexico – The reason I bring up the Lobos is because no one else has, despite the fact that they make some sense. The Lobos are no slouches in football, and Brian Urlacher will personally back that up. But the idea of Texas playing New Mexico in conference basketball games at the Pit? Hot damn, book me there.
5. Utah – They fit for many of the same reasons BYU fits, without the history or the huge traveling fan base. The Utes have more national success in the past two decades than BYU (National Runner-up in basketball 1998, demolishing Alabama last year in the Sugar Bowl) and I’m sure a move to the Big 12 would be a boon to their fan support that could put them on BYU’s level. I just don’t see Utah being in the Big 12 over BYU.
If you didn’t notice, the SEC is the only conference that would be losing a school besides the MWC. So what happens if the Razorbacks bolt for the Big 12?
Like the Big 12, the SEC would remain at 12, keeping their title game. Who would they expand with?
WKU would be a logical choice if Big Blue weren’t there to block it. The SEC also prides itself on big football fan bases, so Memphis is out. Who do they go to? Here’s a couple choices.
1. East Carolina – The Pirates are the #1 choice for any southeast expansion for any conference in my opinion. The SEC would love for a big football school like ECU to join. Also, East Carolina gives the SEC the North Carolina presence it doesn’t have.
2. Troy – I know what you’re saying – what the hell? – but the Trojans are the kind of southern Football First, Academics Second school that embodies an SEC member.
3. Florida State – Let’s make it official. FSU-UF rivalry becomes a conference game. Florida State has never really fit the Tobacco Road lifestyle, and like Troy is a Football First type atmosphere. Traveling costs are way lower.
4. Miami – Same reasons as Florida State; they have no real roots in the ACC, only joining in 2005. The SEC prides itself on being southern, and you can’t get further south than Miami. Except for…
5. Florida International – If Isiah Thomas does what he very well might do, and that is recruit on the highest level, than FIU might be a great choice for their basketball future. The football team is just getting its feet wet, moving into FIU Stadium last year and not putting a big crowd in the seats. A move to the SEC would ensure that those 40,151 students would be big time Golden Panthers faithful.
As for the Mountain West, what would they do should they lose Utah, BYU, or TCU? The same thing they should do if they don’t lose a team: re-connect with the WAC. The Pac 10 is one of the weakest of all the BCS auto-bid conferences in terms of the level of mid-majors around them. The WAC and MWC are far closer to the Pac 10 than the MAC is to the Big Ten or the Sun Belt is to the SEC. The truth is that by consolidating the MWC and WAC, the Pac 10 is looking at a conference that may not just be good, but possibly better than they are. Here’s my WAC-MWC 12 school conference:
North Division:
Boise State
BYU
Utah
Wyoming
Nevada
Fresno State
South Division:
Colorado State
New Mexico
TCU
San Diego State
UNLV
Hawaii
Will it ever happen? Doubtful, as are almost all of my scenarios on this post (I mean, I pitched Troy and FIU to the SEC). But it’s something that should be on the table; in fact, if Air Force were to stay in the MWC, all they would have to do is leave out Hawaii; the travel becomes a lot easier.
Of course, the Pac 10 is also feeling the expansion heat and could nix this idea out by inviting Utah and BYU to make them the Pac 12.
Scenario II: Rutgers or Pitt to the Big Ten
Hahaha I know, I know, I spent a LOT of time on the Mizzou scenario. But the Big East is a different storm than the Big 12. This is primarily a basketball conference, with notoriously weak football. To lose Pitt, arguably one of its top 3 programs in football, or Rutgers, which is another NYC broadcast lost, would be devastating – bigger than the Big 12 losing Mizzou. The Big 12 has great conferences and schools to pick from. The Big East has a lot of basketball schools to add to its basketball conference. Who do they go to if they want to bone up football?
Well, first things first, and that is what direction the Big East wants to go in. Of course, there is the same pressure on that conference as there is on the Big Ten, and Pac 10 to expand to 12 and capitalize on the conference championship game drama. If the Big East were to expand to 12 football schools, however, you are looking at a 20-team basketball conference. And you thought 16 was too big.
Here’s the facts: the Big East is too big for its own good, and there is a definitive split between the football schools and the basketball schools. Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, DePaul, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Providence, and Notre Dame (no football in BIG EAST) are all very different from Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pitt, Rutgers, UConn, USF, Louisville, and Syracuse. You don’t see a big difference? Well how about this?
The eight non-football schools (Georgetown and Villanova are FCS, Notre Dame is independent) are small, private, religious institutions mostly in big cities. The eight football schools are big public institutions (except Syracuse) that are usually the only show in town where they play, Pitt and Cincinnati being the main exceptions here.
By playing with eight schools, the Big East has very tough difficulties in scheduling, and the conference also doesn’t have that championship game to hang its hat on and bring in more money to the members.
They could, as in the case with UConn in the early 2000′s, force Villanova and Georgetown to move up to FBS. Unlike UConn, however, Villanova seems content to be great in FCS (they just won the national title) and Georgetown doesn’t have a solid football fan base by any stretch of the imagination. The Big East will have to look elsewhere.
If they choose to continue the eight team route, they could add an associate member for football only and keep the 16-team basketball conference. This seems to be the likeliest and easiest of scenarios.
However, the idea of the eight football schools splitting off into their own conference isn’t a new idea. When Boston College, Virginia Tech and Miami split for the ACC in 2005, the Big East came very close to fracturing, with the football schools giving up the Big East name and not having an automatic bid to the BCS or the NCAA Tournament. That reason was the main one for the current format.
Can you see the split that I see? Should the football schools split off? The fact is that there are two equal parties that want the Big East’s NCAA Tournament automatic bid. And while it would be easy for the basketball schools to assimilate into new conferences, the fact remains that they own the rights to the Big East auto-bid, not the football schools.
Should the Big East split, here are my possible picks for the football schools to join up and become a 12-team conference:
1. Memphis – Former Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has been hired as a consultant whose sole job is to get the Tigers into a BCS auto-bid conference. Although they don’t have much of a football program, neither did Cincinnati and look what they’ve done this year. They would also shore up the basketball in the football-heavy league.
2. Central Florida – Originally spurned by the Big East, UCF instead left the MAC in football for Conference USA, and the program is bigger than ever. USF might be annoyed by a second Florida team in the conference, but the fact is that the UCF-USF rivalry would be great for the conference, and the Knights are better set with their new stadium and large student population than possibly any school in the country.
3. East Carolina – Like UCF, this is a big football school with the home run athletic department that can step in and compete in football right away, as well as support basketball enough for expansion.
4. Charlotte – This A-10 school is adding football for the 2013 season, and the rest of their athletic department has been top notch for decades. If this conference shake-up were to be delayed to beyond the 2015 season, Charlotte might be a get. And their recruiting would be much bigger immediately if they were invited to the Big East.
5. Western Kentucky – Just finished reclassification to FBS this season, WKU has the basketball prowess and the history of solid
6. Marshall – The idea of a Mountaineers-Thundering Herd game every season in football sounds like just the rivalry needed to take the place of losing one half of the Backyard Brawl.
7. Temple – Diehard Owl fans have been crying ever since they were kicked out of the Big East in 2004. If they can boost the problem-points that they had when they were booted, the Owls could sneak back in.
8. Buffalo – If they can replace Turner Gill with a coach that can continue his winning ways, Buffalo would be a great fit for the Big East; you give Syracuse a territorial rival and Buffalo fits the geographic footprint perfectly (better than the current Big East Bulls, of course). SUNY needs a BCS auto-bid school, and Buffalo’s endowment ($566 million) is the kind of financial support needed for a BCS school.
So what happens in basketball? Well, that domino effect is felt big time. The first schools that would be raided for Big East membership would be Xavier and Dayton. Those schools are obvious because they have the Big East pedigree in basketball and they come in as one of the best rivalries in the country. Here are my other picks to join up with the basketball Big East. I’m just giving possibilities, because we don’t know whether they’d want to remain at 16 (which would add eight schools) or sit pretty at the would-be current eight. I’ll include XU and UD in this list.
1. Xavier – the school has big time basketball and a big time fan base. Xavier is a small, Jesuit institution that exudes Big East so much it’s almost a shame they’re not in right now. Hell, how much you wanna bet the 15 current schools would trade DePaul for Xavier right now?
2. Dayton – The Power of X goes hand in hand with the Flyers. This is a program that fills opposing arenas, travels with a big crowd anywhere in the country, and can take swings in the NCAA Tournament with the best of them. Same question as Xavier – why AREN’T they in the Big East?
3. Butler – Quietly one of the most dominant programs in the mid-major world, the Bulldogs play in Indianapolis, a TV market the Big East would love to invade. The idea of conference Big East games at Hinkle Fieldhouse against Marquette, Georgetown, Syracuse, and Villanova make me salivate like a real-life bulldog. Butler is sitting pretty in the Horizon League, however, with the league office in the city and the flagship institution in the conference. They’d be most likely a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big East Basketball conference until they can get up to speed. Not to say they’re not talented, but Matt Howard would be overmatched against Big East centers.
4. Temple – If the football conference doesn’t get them, the Big East will. Villanova might be a bit uneasy taking on a team in its own city, but they fit very well. Philly Big 5 games that matter in conference? Outstanding.
5. Richmond – Big time support for basketball, the Spiders have made waves in the NCAA Tournament in the past. Is it time for them to join the big boys?
6. Rhode Island – Ditto Richmond, also brings intra-conference the great URI-Providence rivalry.
7. Charlotte – The 49ers are the kind of presence in North Carolina that the Big East desperately needs. The state seen as having the best college basketball in the country does not have a Big East team, and the 49ers would be more apt to compete with NC State and Wake Forest if they were to be in the Big East.
8. VCU – This big public school is one of the largest in the country without football. They support basketball with an iron fist, and the Rams could compete fairly quickly in basketball. The Commonwealth’s Team makes a very strong case for inclusion.
9. George Mason – Is it possible to make Cinderella take off the glass slipper? Mason’s run in 2006 is arguably the greatest story in the history of college athletics, but the Patriots wouldn’t turn down a full-time gig as Connecticut Assassins (woops, they would go the other way). A potential rivalry with Georgetown is a check in favor of Mason.
10. Milwaukee – Certainly Marquette would block any attempt by the conference to bring in the other team in their city, but the Panthers are extremely enviable in that their non-revenue sports would shore up the Big East big time. The soccer programs would be great gets for the conference, and the baseball team would rack up the runs on the Big East just as they have done to the Horizon League for 20 years. The basketball fan base leaves a lot to be desired, but the #1 gripe we hear in Brew City from alumni and students is that they don’t play the best teams in the country like Marquette. What if Milwaukee did? Rumors that a new basketball arena is in the works could shore up that fan base to the point where they’re an attractive candidate.
I leave out the Missouri Valley Conference schools for one reason: they might be better off together than splitting apart. Unlike Butler and Milwaukee, the MVC has a strong conference top to bottom and none of their schools could fit in that east coast conference. Milwaukee and Butler are stretches themselves, much like DePaul and Marquette currently are.
That said, if a major conference shake-up the size of the 2005 realignment or bigger happens, than I think the MVC should take advantage and raid the fellow mid and low-major midwest conferences, such as the Horizon League, of its biggest talent. Like the MWC out west, I’ve put together my dream Midwest Conference, which I’ll call the Midwestern Collegiate Conference (speaking of Horizon League) for the argument’s sake, made up of 16 teams:
Butler
Milwaukee
Wright State
Saint Louis
Oral Roberts
Green Bay
Bradley
Creighton
Drake
Wichita State
Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa
Missouri State
Indiana State
Illinois State
Evansville
The idea is the same as it was for Marquette, Cincinnati, DePaul and all of the schools that made up the Great Midwest Conference (eventually Conference USA) in the 1990′s: consolidate and improve your current position. The Horizon League, A10 and Summit will not be happy to lose their eight schools. But the rich get richer as they say, and the MVC has all the cards over those other conferences.
Would this ever happen? As much chance as Troy has of joining the SEC in the next few years, but I’m a progressive thinker, and I see this as an opportunity for all schools involved to take advantage of their roots as midwest power mid-majors. If the top mid-majors of the midwest unite, then they are no longer a mid-major. By keeping the current makeup of the MVC, the schools take advantage of the system. That conference is not far away from the football split of the Big East.
I’m constantly thinking of possibilities for my alma mater, Milwaukee, to make the move up. Nothing against the Horizon League; it’s a great mid-major conference and our talent level and fan base are in that general area. But the day we’re content with being a mid-major forever is the day I go insane. Maybe I already have; you’d have to be at least a bit cuckoo to write this post.
But look what USF has done for itself. By making the moves they needed to make and jumping at possibilities, they’ve gone from nowhere to the Big East from 1997-2005.
That kind of upward mobility can only happen in America. Here’s to hoping it can happen in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.*
* Assume writer insanity at time of post.
